Sunday, August 06, 2006

Thoughts on MLB Comeback Player of the Year

I was watching Baseball Tonight and they raised the question of whether or not Jason Giambi could win Comeback Player of the Year two years in a row. That got me thinking about who are some of the players who should be considered for that award, so I figured I'd do some research and come up with a couple of names. If nothing else, it beats having to listen to the Baseball Tonight guys debate every night about who should be MVP.

That being said, this is my very unofficial take on a couple of players who should be considered for comeback player of the year. The official definition says that it should go to a player who has "reemerged as a star in the season." Based on some past winners, most notablt Gil Meche in 2003, I think the star quality is not as necessary as someone who has improved their play greatly. That being said, here's what I found.

American League: Magglio Ordonez

2005 numbers: 38 runs, 92 hits, 8 home runs, 46 RBIs, 17 doubles
2006 numbers (projected): 85 runs, 179 hits, 24 home runs, 115 RBIs, 33 doubles
Changes: +54 runs, +87 hits, + 16 home runs, +69 RBIs, +16 doubles

Makes a lot of sense to mention Ordonez, who they don't mention often in Tigers highlights. He's a big reason why the Tigers are playing so well. Ordonez hasn't had a season this good since 2003 with the White Sox


National League: Carlos Beltran

2005 numbers: 83 runs, , 16 home runs, 78 RBIs, .266 BA, 56 BB
2006 numbers (projected): 128 runs, , 50 home runs, 148 RBIs, .283 BA, 84 BB
Changes: +45 runs, +34 home runs, +70 RBIs, +.17 points on the BA, +28 BB

Maybe this might be seen as an easy pick, but since I haven't heard or read anyone else's picks I'm sticking with it. Beltran is projected to hit 3 times as many home runs as last season. He's already doubled last season's total. Carlos is also on pace to hit twice as many RBIs as last season. I don't think anyone else has improved like that.


Honorable Mention: Colorado Rockies pitching staff

Jeff Francis: 5.68 ERA to 3.55 ERA
Jason Jennings: 5.02 ERA to 3.48 ERA, 3 complete games and 2 shutouts (1 complete game in '05)
Aaron Cook: 3.67 and 3.78 ERA the past two seasons (a low of 4.28 before then)
Josh Fogg: 5.05 ERA to 4.39 ERA
Byung-Hyun Kim: 4.87 ERA to 4.58 ERA

I think this is a whole different area of research in and of itself. Colorado's five starters have all seriously improved their numbers. My guess is that a lot of this has to do with the humidor that they are using to store their baseball in, but still the numbers are ridiculous. I know the award can't go to a whole group, but these things need to be mentioned.


So that's what I've got. It's a very unscientific list, but the players I've mentioned have definitely improved their level of play from one year ago. If I remember, I will revisit this post around the end of September when names start to be mentioned seriously for the award. Hopefully my guys will be some of those names. I'm done with this for now though. I need to focus my attention to how the Phils are losing tonight

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