Wednesday, December 12, 2007

The Mitchell Report

So George Mitchell will be annoucing tomorrow the results of his investigation into performance enhancing drugs in major league baseball. While I'm sure I could go on about what I think of the process in general, I won't. The only real exciting part of this is that the Mitchell Report is promising to "name names."

So with Mitchell naming players, it leads me to speculate as to who might be on the list. From what I've heard, there are 60-80 players on the list, including some very surprising names. That being said, I thought it would be fun to sit down and try to guess who might be on the list. I'm not good enough to try to guess all 60 players, but there are some names I'd like to get down before it becomes official. Just gut guesses here. No evidence or anything like that.


Here are some links before I get going:
Players suspended for violating MLB Drug Policy: A misleading list, as some of the players were suspended for violations other that steroids (Neifi Perez, for example)
NL Standings and AL Standings for 2005: Assuming that baseball has been "clean" since 2006, any players I am guessing from should be looked at from 2005 and back

The Names (Teams as of 2005):

Marcus Giles, Atlanta Braves - His numbers dropped off after his '05 year and he hasn't been much of a force since then. That could just be from a fluke down year followed by moving to Petco Park, to be fair

Cliff Floyd, New York Mets - Here's a guy who struggled for a lot of his career to stay healthy. Maybe there was a temptation to use steroids to get back quicker

Pedro Martinez, New York Mets - What a shocker this would be? The most dominant pitcher from 1997 - 2005 getting busted for steroids. This would blow my mind. I doubt it would happen, but just imagine if it did

Roger Clemens, Houston Astros - I've thought this for a couple of years now. Someone his age pitching as well as he did has to bring up some suspicions. Honestly, I don't think this one would surprise as many people as if Pedro was flagged.

Jeff Kent, LA Dodgers - He's got the time he spent with Bonds going for him, plus the production at an older age. Also, he was with the Mets while Kirk Radomski was still there.

Miguel Tejada, Baltimore Orioles - He was playing with Rafael Palmeiro, who was caught with steroids, Jay Gibbons, who used HGH, and Jason Grimsley. If he didn't, there has to be a couple of Orioles who did.

Eric Chavez, Oakland A's - This guy was a great hitter from 2000 - 2005 and never really produced the past two years. Injuries were a problem and could explain that

Hank Blalock, Texas Rangers - I heard about him from a guy who knew a guy. If I had to put money down on any player who hasn't been mentioned, it would be him. Just wait and see


So that's my list. Upon review of my list, I think the biggest way in which it won't represent the actual names is the lack of pitchers. I think the list will be made up of about 60% pitchers, most of whom will be relievers. That was something that really doesn't show up while looking over names so I couldn't pick out many myself. Also, I have almost all stars on this list. In all likelihood, the Mitchell report will name mostly players who struggled to get to the majors and stay there. Players like that had the most to gain from steroids.

Regardless of what I've guessed, if this report actually lives up to the hype and names players, it will be a huge challenge for baseball to overcome. Already burdened with being the most scrutinized of professional sports, MLB would then have to deal with 20+ years of results being questioned (meanwhile the NFL has teams with video tapes of opponents being used to win games, but you can never say anything bad about them). Baseball has proven it is strong enough to clean up the game. I hope now it is strong enough to once again change people's perceptions