The Washington Nationals

2007 in Review

The Washington Nationals came into 2007 with little expectations. Many people slated them to lose 100 games, or more. With Manny Acta taking over as manager, this was definitely a rebuilding year. Yet the Nats played better than a lot of people expected. In what was a difficult NL East they held their own, tying the season series with the Mets and winning 10-8 against the Marlins. They even played well against the American League, with a 9-9 record. The Nats were hurt by their poor hitting and OBP, which led to the worst runs per game in the National League. Surprisingly, even with 12 pitchers starting at least 6 games, their team ERA was right in the middle of the NL.

The Nationals best hitter was Dmitri Young, who came out of nowhere for the Nationals to end up winning the Comeback Player of the Year award. He set career highs in batting average and on base percentage while getting his second All Star appearance. For the pitchers, Matt Chico stood out in 2007. While the case could be made for Chad Cordero, Matt Chico was the only starting pitcher for the Nats not to miss a start. All of this was in his rookie season, too.


New Additions

The Nationals were a busy team this offseason. With a new ballpark on the way, there were many trades made to try to build a team that will both be competitive this season, as well as for the long term. Two pickups that could help with the long term goals of the team are Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. While both these players have had trouble in their previous organizations, they also have the talent to be impact players for a long time to come. The Nats also picked Tyler Clippard from the Yankees, a pitcher who could make the rotation for the Nationals before 2008 is over.

Unfortunately, the Nationals also made a couple of pointless signings. Aaron Boone and Paul Lo Duca were both signed this offseason. I really don't see the point of these signings. Boone is nothing more than a backup with Ryan Zimmerman and Young at the corners. The Nats have a young starter in Jesus Flores, which limits the need for a veteran catcher like Lo Duca. They also have Johnny Estrada, who will fill the backup catcher role nicely. Overall, I'd rate these moves a 3. There were some definite moves that showed thoughts of contention beyond this season, yet moves like signing Lo Duca will only hurt the team (especially with his steroid allegations)


Ranking the Lineup

The Nationals have an interesting lineup. If it plays out like ESPN's Hot Stove predicts, they will have a lot of potential in the outfield with Milledge, Wily Mo Pena, and Austin Kearns. All three of those hitters, as well as Ryan Zimmerman and Jesus Flores will be under 27. While there is a lot of potential in those names, there will also be the danger of inconsistency. In comparison, Dmitri Young, Lo Duca, and Ronnie Belliard will provide some stability in the lineup. Finally there is Cristian Guzman, who the Nats are hoping will play more like he did in 2007 (.328 in limited action) than 2006 (.219 batting average over 456 at bats).

Ranking the lineup, I'd really like to give them a 3. The Nats seem like the team that could put together some good runs, especially moving into a park that is more hitter friendly than RFK Stadium. Yet, I can't because I feel that's putting too much on the production of still unproven hitters. Because of that, the Nationals lineup scores a 2.


Ranking the Rotation

Unfortunately, I do not think nearly as highly of the pitching staff. With four starters under 27 and only John Patterson (age 30) with more than 200 innings pitcher for his career, this is not a rotation that shows in any way a hope for winning games. That's not to say there isn't potential here. Matt Chico, Jason Bergmann, and Shawn Hill all had decent seasons last year. Still, there is no chance that there is a pitcher here who wins 10 more games than he loses. Sadly, they'd be lucky to get a pitcher with 10 wins (last year's leader was reliever Jon Rauch with 8). With all of this in mind, it's pretty obvious that the Nationals pitching staff would score a 1 in this system.


Final Thoughts and Predictions

I don't think I'd mind if I lived in the DC area and had to watch the Nationals every night. Yes, they may not win much again with their pitching staff but at least they'd be interesting. It's far easier to root for a young starter than an old washed up pitcher who's bounced around far too often. The Nationals also have a great bullpen, which will make any close games exciting to watch in the later innings. Finally, their lineup is filled with young players who could easily knock the ball a mile.

While I don't see many wins in 2008 for the Nationals, it wouldn't surprise me if their season went much like 2007. Everyone writes them off and they hold their own and even surprise a team or two. I expect big things from Ryan Zimmerman this year. Since he came into the league, he's had one of the best gloves at third base. I think this will be the year he will complement that with 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. I see the Nationals finishing fourth again in the NL East.


Next up: Toronto Blue Jays

The Offseason in Review

With pitchers and catchers reporting to their camps this week, I thought it would be a good time to sit back and take a look at what each team did to better themselves in the offseason. This past offseason was an active one, with many key players changing teams either through trades or free agency. The free agents who remain will most likely fill in spots in rosters that may be a bit thin so now would be a great time to review how player movement has affected each of the 30 major league teams.

Each of the reviews will begin with a synopsis of how the team performed in the 2007 season. This will include my thoughts on their best hitter and pitcher. Following that will be a review of the new additions of the team. To make it easier to compare, I will rank the additions on a scale from 5 down to 1. The rankings will be determined as follows:

1. A team will get a 1 ranking if their only additions will end up hurting their team, whether it be in the short or long term
2. Not as bad as a 1 ranking, scoring a 2 would mean the players added may still end up hurting the team's performance
3. If the additions a team makes will neither positively or negatively effect their team's performance (only minor additions, bench players, average players, etc.)
4. If a team made significant moves in the offseason, they would score a 4
5. This score would be reserved for big additions to a team that will change the outcome of the upcoming season

Following a review of the additions a team made, their new lineup and pitching rotation will also be scored. For the projected 2008 rosters, I will be using ESPN's Hot Stove homepage. The basic idea of the scoring for these ares will follow as such:

1. Hitters: There are no threats in the lineup; Pitchers: None of the 1-5 starters fit into projected rotation results (will be explained below)
2. Both for the lineup and rotation, this score will be for a team with one standout player surrounded by otherwise average or below average players
3. A completely average lineup, the sort that will be enough to win some games, but no real firepower to carry a team
4. This is where a team starts to look interesting. The 1-5 pitchers start to show some real life and the hitters could easily change the course of a game
5. Scoring a 5 would mean having a dangerous lineup, from 1-9. Likewise for the pitchers

A note on what I will be looking for with pitchers. I heard Steve Phillips explain once what he tried to do when putting a rotation together back when he was the GM of the Mets. He said he looked for certain results from his 1-5 pitchers. From his number one pitcher, he looked for about 10 more wins than losses. This could be 14-4 or 20-10, as long as their was that 10 game differential. From his number two pitcher, he wanted 7 more wins than losses. Number three was 5, then a difference of 3 from the number four pitcher, and finally an even record from his number five pitcher.

While in reality, this sort of win differential from a rotation would be very hard to compile, it does have its uses when reviewing a team's rotation. For example, Baltimore has Daniel Cabrera slated as its number one pitcher going into the 2008 season. Last year Cabrera was 9-18 and he has never had a record better than 12-8. Placing him into that framework shows that the Orioles might not have the top of the rotation starter they would be looking for.

After grading the additions, lineups, and rotations, the team review will conclude with a couple of final thoughts on the upcoming season. What to look for, breakout candidates, and the like will finish off the team's offseason in review. The first team on the block will either be the Arizona Diamondbacks or the Washington Nationals, at which point I will work my way alphabetically through all 30 teams. I guess that all depends on whether I want to start with a great team or a team with little hope of getting out of last place in their division (any guesses which is which?)